5 Backtests

Strategy Backtests & Analysis

Evidence-based analysis of popular gambling strategies. Real simulations. Honest conclusions. No profit promises — including when strategies fail.

Methodology: All backtests use Monte Carlo simulation with ≥10,000 sessions per strategy. Assumptions and sample sizes are disclosed in each analysis. No strategy is presented as a guaranteed profit system.

Negative EV Strategies

2 analyses

Popular systems that cannot overcome the house edge. We ran the simulations so you don't have to.

Martingale System Backtest

Roulette / Even-Money

Doubling after every loss increases variance but cannot flip a negative-EV game. Ruin probability rises sharply at realistic bankroll sizes.

Ruin Risk (100 sessions)

Does Not Beat House Edge

D'Alembert System Backtest

Even-Money Games

Slower stake progression than Martingale. House edge of −2.6% persists regardless of staking pattern — EV does not change with bet sizing.

Ruin Risk (100 sessions)

Does Not Beat House Edge

Positive EV Strategies

3 analyses

Approaches with genuine mathematical edge. Risks are real but different in nature — read the caveats.

Bonus Hunting EV Analysis

Not all bonuses produce positive EV. Our framework filters by wagering requirement, game RTP contribution and expected value. Only ~30% of offers pass.

Avg Expected ROI

Ruin Risk (50 bonuses)

Bonuses Analysed

Positive EV When Selective

Matched Betting Analysis

Genuine mathematical edge using free bets and lay betting. Primary risk is not ruin but bookmaker account restrictions after sustained profits.

Typical ROI Range

Financial Ruin Risk

Account Restriction Risk

Mathematically Sound (with caveats)

Arbitrage Sports Betting

Guarantees profit on paper by backing all outcomes. Execution risk and near-certain account restrictions make it difficult to sustain beyond 3–6 months.

Typical ROI per Arb

Financial Ruin Risk

Account Restriction Risk

Risk-Free Mathematically, Not Practically

🧮 Verify These Results Yourself

Use our calculators to run the same EV and bankroll math on any specific offer or scenario.

💡 Bonus EV Calculator → ⚖️ Arbitrage Calculator →

📐 Understand the Math Behind the Results

Read our foundational guide on expected value — the concept that drives every conclusion in these backtests.

Expected Value Explained →

🏦 Find Low-Wagering Casinos for Bonus Hunting

If bonus hunting passes your EV filter, we evaluate casinos by wagering difficulty, bonus EV and payout transparency.

View Casino Analysis →

18+ only · Past results do not guarantee future performance · Responsible Gambling

18+ only · Gambling should be entertaining, not a source of income · BeGambleAware · GamCare · Responsible Gambling